A game freezes mid-match, the screen tears into blocks of color, or Windows drops straight to a blue screen with a code like MEMORY_MANAGEMENT or IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL. Reinstalling the game does nothing. Rolling back GPU drivers does nothing. Nine times out of ten, gamers chase the GPU or the power supply first, because those are the…
A niche AI benchmark bet just became one of the busiest markets on Manifold. A contract asking whether the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score will reach 65 or higher by September 30, 2026 is trading at roughly 98% implied probability of YES as of September 02, 2026, and most of its lifetime volume changed…
Bettors pile into a Waymo Marin County market as robotaxi expansion accelerates. A Manifold prediction market asking whether Waymo One will bring service to Marin County by December 31, 2026 is trading at 59% implied probability of YES as of September 02, 2026, with top-tier 24-hour volume and 77 unique bettors active. The move follows…
The doors to Europe’s largest consumer tech show haven’t opened to the public yet, but there’s already plenty of news coming out of IFA 2026 in Berlin, Germany. If you’re already struggling to keep up with what has been announced, here are some of the best new gadgets and upgrades from the show – including…
Apple just posted the strongest June quarter for the Mac in the product line’s 42-year history, and a chunk of that growth traces back to an unlikely customer type: AI labs buying desktop computers by the pallet. Apple’s fiscal Q3 2026 results, released July 30, showed Mac revenue of $10.4 billion, up nearly 29% year…
Most current vision-language-action (VLA) models—such as OpenVLA, π0, RT-2, and RDT-1B—are “monolithic.” This means they generate raw motor commands or very short sequences of actions, without organizing behaviors into reusable, well-defined abstractions. As a result, these models perform poorly on long-horizon (multi-step) tasks, and it’s difficult to interpret what they have learned. Existing approaches for…