Bitcoin traded near $76,733 on Friday, Oct. 30, down about 3% on the day, according to FXEmpire’s price forecast published that evening. Chart watchers now name $75,000 as the next support worth testing, and the trigger is a security breach at the world’s biggest crypto exchange. This Bitcoin price prediction piece lays out the levels, the hack facts and the scenarios traders are weighing as of Oct. 31, 2026.
Binance disclosed on Oct. 29 that attackers had pulled roughly $6.3 billion in assets from its systems, which makes it the largest crypto theft on record. Bitcoin had spent the week pinned near $80,000 and slipped through that floor within hours, as we tracked in our first report on Bitcoin falling to $77K. Yahoo Finance UK, Investopedia and 24/7 Wall St. all ran coverage of the sell-off and the technical picture that followed.
Two questions drive the price now. First, how much of the stolen money can be frozen or recovered? Second, will the macro backdrop (a split Federal Reserve and Treasury yields near 5%) give buyers any reason to step in? The sections below separate confirmed figures from guesswork, flag where outlets disagree, and finish with scenarios and predictions clearly marked as our own analysis. For the wider threat picture, see our cybersecurity coverage.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why $75K Is the Level in Play
The $75,000 mark is not an arbitrary round number. FXEmpire’s forecast calls it the nearest and most likely support after the $80,000 area broke, and it sets $85,000 as the recovery target if buyers defend it. Invezz made the same call a day earlier, on Oct. 29, naming $75,000 as the downside target if the $80,000 floor failed. That floor did fail, so the target moved from hypothetical to live.
Invezz also tracked how often buyers had already defended $80,000. Bitcoin tested the zone on Oct. 24, 26 and 27, and each time it held. Support that gets hit three times in four days tends to wear thin, because each retest burns through the resting bids that made it support in the first place. Bitcoin reached a recent high of $81,713 on Wednesday, Oct. 28, and an earlier peak above $84,000 on Oct. 22, so the range had already been narrowing before the hack landed.
FXEmpire adds a downside tail. If $75,000 gives way, it points to a $72,000 to $65,000 zone, a drop of roughly 13% from the Friday price. We treat that as a stress case and not a forecast. A 13% slide would need fresh bad news beyond the hack itself, such as a second exchange incident or a hawkish surprise from the Fed.
What Happened at Binance on October 29
CNBC reported that attackers stole about $6.3 billion in digital assets and moved them across 10 blockchains in roughly 20 minutes. Wikipedia’s running entry on the incident lists a slightly higher $6.36 billion and says the largest single transaction topped $2.5 billion. We use the more conservative $6.3 billion throughout, since outlets have not agreed on a final tally.
Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals while it investigated and said it would cover all customer losses. The company also said user funds are safe. CNBC reported that analysts saw no immediate solvency risk for the exchange. That assessment matters for the Bitcoin price because the fear in the first hours was a bank-run dynamic, where users rush to pull coins from a platform they no longer trust.
The scale is hard to overstate. Our earlier comparison put this theft at about 4.2 times the Bybit loss, and the full timeline is in our piece on the 20-minute heist and what developers can learn. The speed points to automated withdrawals, not a slow manual raid, which is why the exchange had so little room to react before the outflow finished.
Bitcoin’s Reaction by the Numbers
Crypto trades around the clock, so every outlet measured a different window and quoted a slightly different price. CNBC put Bitcoin down 4.1% at $77,445.96, with ether off 4.4% at $2,229.50 and the exchange’s BNB token down about 6% to $701.18. FXEmpire’s later reading showed $76,732.75, a 3.01% drop on Friday after the 4.1% fall the day before. The table collects the readings we could confirm.
| Metric | Reported level | Outlet |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin after the hack news | $77,445.96 (down 4.1%) | CNBC |
| Bitcoin on Oct. 30 evening | $76,732.75 (down 3.01%) | FXEmpire |
| Ether | $2,229.50 (down 4.4%) | CNBC |
| BNB | $701.18 (down about 6%) | CNBC |
| Bitcoin before the hack, Oct. 29 morning | About $80,100 (low of $79,600) | CoinDesk |
| Recent high | $81,713 on Oct. 28 | Invezz |
The pattern looks like a sharp flush followed by a hesitant bounce, not a clean trend break. A $6.3 billion theft would have crushed sentiment in a thinner market, yet Bitcoin gave back only about 3% to 5% depending on the timestamp. Part of the cushion came from Binance’s promise to make users whole and from stablecoin issuers moving quickly, which we cover below.
Technical Levels: The Broken $80K Floor and the 200-Day EMA
FXEmpire notes that Bitcoin is tagging its 200-day exponential moving average from above. That average often acts as a line between a pullback and a trend change, so a daily close beneath it would strengthen the bearish case. A hold would keep the retest of $75,000 as a floor test and nothing more.
Momentum readings were already soft before the hack. Invezz reported an RSI of 44 and a stochastic reading of 21 on Oct. 29, both of which favor sellers, with a daily consolidation range between $80,000 and $82,000. Invezz also listed $82,000 as key resistance. After the break, $80,000 flips from support to resistance, which gives bears a clean level to sell into on any bounce.
| Level | Role | Source |
|---|---|---|
| $85,000 | Recovery target if $75K holds | FXEmpire |
| $82,000 | Key resistance before the break | Invezz |
| $80,000 | Broken support, now resistance | FXEmpire, Invezz |
| $76,733 | Oct. 30 price | FXEmpire |
| $75,000 | Nearest support, retest zone | FXEmpire, Invezz |
| $72,000 to $65,000 | Deeper correction range | FXEmpire |
Liquidations Added Fuel to the Drop
FXEmpire reported about $1.3 billion in long-position liquidations over 24 hours. Other trackers cited by search summaries put the figure closer to $1.5 billion, and we follow the lower number because the sources disagree. Either way, forced selling turned a headline-driven dip into a faster slide, since each liquidated long becomes a market sell order.
Leverage had built up during the weeks Bitcoin chopped near $80,000. Traders who bought dips there had stops stacked just below the round number, and the hack hit that cluster. Once the flush cleared, the pressure eased. That is why the bounce above $77,000 came quickly even as sentiment stayed poor.
FXEmpire also noted that Bitcoin ETFs finished the prior session with net inflows, which suggests institutional buyers did not flee on the first headline. One day of positive flow proves little. The more useful signal will be whether inflows persist if Bitcoin revisits $75,000.
What the $3 Billion Freeze Means for Price
CNBC reported that roughly $3 billion of the stolen assets were frozen after Circle and Tether froze USDC and USDT holdings, which leaves about $3.3 billion unfrozen. Stablecoins proved the most recoverable asset class because their issuers keep the power to blacklist addresses. Our dedicated report on how issuers froze $2.84B of the theft shows how the totals shifted as different outlets updated their counts.
The freeze matters for Bitcoin in two ways. It shrinks the pool of loot the attacker can dump on the market, and it signals that regulators and issuers can act within hours. A thief holding frozen tokens cannot sell them, so the immediate sell pressure is smaller than the $6.3 billion headline implies.
Figures differ by outlet and by timestamp, with reports ranging from $2.5 billion to about $3 billion frozen as the day progressed. That spread is normal in a fast-moving case. We would not read the gap as a contradiction, only as a sign that freezes were still rolling out.
The 18,270 BTC Overhang
The Bitcoin leg of the theft is the piece nobody can switch off. A CoinDesk report carried by Fidelity said Binance’s hot wallet sent about 18,270 BTC in 11 transactions, and the attacker split the coins across 19 wallets. The report valued the haul near $1.4 billion. Our breakdown of the 19 wallets shows 17 of them received exactly 1,000 BTC each.
Why dormant coins still move the market
Bitcoin has no issuer with a freeze button, so these coins sit outside the toolkit that Circle and Tether used. As of 04:23 UTC on Friday, none of the 19 wallets had moved coins onward. Traders treat that silence as an overhang. If the attacker begins moving or selling, the first outbound transaction will reveal the laundering route and could spook the market a second time.
The size needs perspective. About $1.4 billion in BTC is large for one actor but small beside the daily volume of the Bitcoin market. The risk is less about the dollar amount and more about the headline, because a visible dump on a day when Bitcoin already sits on support can trigger another wave of stops.
How the Breach Reportedly Started
Binance said the attack originated from a compromised laptop, which let an attacker reach a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. Forbes framed the story as one that began with a single engineer’s laptop. We cannot independently confirm those details beyond what the company and the press have said, and the full forensic report has not been published.
The point for security teams is plain. A single endpoint gave an attacker a path to the signing and withdrawal layer of an exchange holding billions. Developer workstations, container access and approval workflows form one chain, and a weak link anywhere in it can drain a hot wallet in minutes. Teams should review who can reach production containers from a laptop and how many separate approvals a large withdrawal needs.
CNBC added that the attackers used the Tornado Cash mixing service to fund wallets more than 36 hours before the theft. That detail implies planning, since the preparation began well before any alarm sounded. It also gives defenders a lesson, because monitoring for freshly funded wallets interacting with withdrawal paths could shrink the response window from hours to minutes.
TraderTraitor and the Bybit Playbook
CNBC reported that TRM Labs and Chainalysis attributed the attack with high confidence to TraderTraitor, a North Korean state-sponsored hacking unit. NPR carried a similar account of blockchain intelligence firms linking North Korea to the theft. Attribution from analytics firms is strong evidence but not a legal finding, and no court has ruled on it. We covered the details in our report on the TRM Labs attribution.
The same group was blamed for the $1.5 billion Bybit theft in February 2025, per CNBC. If the attribution holds, the pattern repeats. A state-backed actor targets the human and software layer around the keys, moves funds fast across many chains and then tries to cash out through channels that avoid freezes.
For traders, attribution changes the recovery odds. A criminal crew might sell quickly to cash out. A state actor may sit on bitcoin for weeks or months, which prolongs the overhang described above and keeps the risk of a surprise sale alive.
Historical Context: Three Exchange Hacks Compared
Binance has been hit before, though never at this scale. In May 2019 attackers took about 7,000 bitcoin, then worth roughly $41 million, according to Al Jazeera’s coverage at the time. The 2025 Bybit incident was the previous record. The current theft is far larger than both.
| Incident | Date | Reported loss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance hot wallet hack | May 2019 | About $41 million (7,000 BTC) | Al Jazeera |
| Bybit theft | February 2025 | $1.5 billion | CNBC |
| Bybit and Bitget incidents combined | Past 12 months | $1.8 billion | FXEmpire |
| Binance hack | Oct. 29, 2026 | $6.3 billion | CNBC |
| Binance hack, alternate tally | Oct. 29, 2026 | $6.36 billion | Wikipedia |
The comparison shows a steep climb in single-incident size. The 2026 loss is roughly 4.2 times the Bybit figure and more than 150 times the 2019 loss. Yet Bitcoin’s reaction in dollar terms stayed modest, which suggests the market has priced in a certain baseline of exchange risk and treats this event as a severity step-up, not a regime change.
Macro Backdrop: A Split Fed and Treasury Yields Near 5%
The hack landed on top of a tough rate environment. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, and the vote was 10 to 2, with two members wanting a 25-basis-point hike. Invezz put the probability of a December hike at 78.4% and noted the 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5%. Our earlier note on Bitcoin at $80,100 as the Fed split 10-2 covers that setup.
Higher yields pull money toward risk-free returns and weigh on assets without cash flows. That backdrop explains why Bitcoin struggled to hold $82,000 even before the breach. It also means a recovery toward $85,000 likely needs help from rates, not only from a calming of hack headlines.
The stock market added to the mood. Bloomberg’s coverage noted that a broader equity sell-off weighed on the same day, and tech earnings kept investors focused on AI spending. When equities wobble, crypto usually trades as a high-beta risk asset and not a haven.
Market Impact Beyond Bitcoin
The damage spread past Bitcoin. Ether lost 4.4% and BNB fell about 6%, per CNBC. BNB took the harder hit because it ties directly to the affected exchange and its ecosystem. Smaller tokens usually swing hardest in these episodes, and our reporting on the hacker’s FUN token sale showed a 90% crash in that thin market.
Counterparty risk is the lasting theme. Users who hold coins on any exchange now ask the same question: what happens if the hot wallet gets drained? Binance’s pledge to cover losses answers it for this case. The broader lesson favors self-custody for long-term holdings and strict withdrawal controls for active traders.
CNBC reported that Binance’s SAFU emergency fund held about $1.2 billion, well short of the $6.3 billion loss. That gap means the company must fund the rest from its balance sheet. Other outlets have reported larger reserve figures, so the exact backstop is still unclear. Analysts quoted by CNBC saw no immediate solvency risk, but the number to watch is how quickly withdrawals resume and whether outflows stay calm.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Scenarios for November
The paths below are our own scenario analysis built from the levels in the sources. They are not forecasts from any named analyst, and none is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Base case: a retest of $75K that holds
Bitcoin drifts toward $75,000, sellers run out of urgency and buyers defend the level, much as they defended $80,000 three times last week. In this path the price ranges between $75,000 and $80,000 until more hack details emerge. FXEmpire’s logic points the same way, with a rebound target of $85,000 only after a base forms.
Bear case: $75K breaks
A daily close below $75,000, combined with a sale of the 18,270 BTC or a hawkish Fed surprise, opens the $72,000 to $65,000 zone that FXEmpire flags. That would be a drop of roughly 13% from Friday’s level. This case needs a second shock on top of the hack.
Bull case: relief after freezes and a restart
If Binance restores withdrawals smoothly, more funds get frozen and outflows stay light, Bitcoin could reclaim $80,000 and aim for $82,000. That would erase the hack’s damage and flip the broken floor back to support.
Five Predictions for the Next Two Weeks
- Bitcoin tests $75,000 at least once. With $80,000 broken and a 200-day EMA under pressure, a touch of the support zone looks more likely than a straight rebound.
- The first move of the 18,270 BTC becomes the biggest single headline. Any transfer from the 19 wallets will draw instant attention and likely a short-term price reaction.
- Total frozen funds rise above $3 billion. Issuers and exchanges tend to add freezes as tracing improves, so the headline figure should creep higher.
- The Fed outlook dominates once hack news fades. A 78.4% December hike probability, per Invezz, leaves little room for dovish surprises.
- Exchanges tighten key-management and endpoint rules. Expect public security reviews and new withdrawal limits across large platforms after a loss this size.
What traders and security teams should watch
Traders should track three items: the $75,000 close, the status of Binance withdrawals and activity in the 19 attacker wallets. Position sizing matters more than conviction here, because stops stacked just under round numbers get hunted in headline-driven markets.
Security teams should treat the incident as a case study. Audit which laptops can reach production containers, require multi-party approval for large transfers and alert on newly funded wallets that touch withdrawal flows. Cold storage for the bulk of assets limits what any hot-wallet compromise can take. Binance’s own pledge to cover losses is generous, but few firms can match it.
FAQ: Bitcoin Price and the Binance Hack
What is the Bitcoin price prediction after the Binance hack?
FXEmpire expects a retest of $75,000 support, with $85,000 as the recovery target if that level holds. If $75,000 fails, it flags a $72,000 to $65,000 zone. These are technical levels, not guarantees.
How much was stolen in the Binance hack?
CNBC and other outlets report about $6.3 billion. Wikipedia lists $6.36 billion. It is the largest crypto theft on record, ahead of the $1.5 billion Bybit loss in February 2025.
Are user funds at Binance safe?
Binance says user funds are safe and that it will cover all losses. CNBC reported that analysts saw no immediate solvency risk. Deposits and withdrawals were suspended during the investigation.
How much of the stolen money was frozen?
CNBC reported roughly $3 billion frozen, mainly USDC and USDT held by Circle and Tether. Other reports gave lower numbers earlier, so the total may keep changing.
Who is blamed for the hack?
TRM Labs and Chainalysis attributed it with high confidence to TraderTraitor, a North Korean state-sponsored unit, per CNBC. No court has ruled on the claim.
How did the hackers get in?
Binance said a compromised laptop let an attacker reach a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawals. A full forensic report has not been published.
Can the stolen bitcoin be frozen?
Not by an issuer, since Bitcoin has none. CoinDesk reported that 18,270 BTC sat in 19 wallets with no onward movement as of early Friday. Exchanges and law enforcement can still flag addresses and block cash-out attempts.
Is this a good time to buy Bitcoin?
That depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon, and this article is not financial advice. The data shows a market sitting near support with a hawkish Fed and an unresolved overhang from the stolen coins.